Extreme Events(ISBN=9780521824125) mobi 下载 fb2 夸克云 azw3 网盘 pdf pmlz

　　“An excellent introduction to the risk assessment of natural

events such as floods，droughts，earthquakes and tsunamis。” ——

Choice

The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods，

droughts，earthquakes，tsunamis or cyclones，may not reflect the full

range or magnitude of events possible。 As human populations grow，

especially in hazard-prone areas， methods for accurately assessing

natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important。Jonathan

Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards

from natural long-term records。He demonstrates how long-term

records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the

variability of natural hazards，and how short-term historical

records can often misrepresent likely risks。

1 Introduction

The problem with natural hazard risk assessments

The risk assessment process

Mathematical and statistical certainties versus realistic

estimates

Stationarity in time series

Reality versus reasonableness

Concluding comments

Aims and scope of this book

2 Droughts

Historical droughts

Droughts and impacts

Palaeodroughts

Sand dunes

Lake sediments and geochemical signatures

Marine sediments

Foraminifera

Diatoms

Charcoal layers

Carbon isotopes

Oxygen isotopes

Nitrogen isotopes

Pollen and palaeobiology

Tree-ring analysis （dendrochronology）

Speleothem records

Conclusion

3 Floods

Causes of floods

Human-induced floods

Characteristics of flood flows

Measurement of flood flows

Floods as a natural hazard

Social and economic impacts of floods

Palaeofloods

Slackwater sediments

Plunge pool deposits

Geobotanic indicators

Flow competence measures

Channel geometry

Coral luminescence

The largest known floods on Earth

Conclusion

4 Tropical cyclones

Formation of tropical cyclones

Impacts of tropical cyclones

Palaeotempestology and the prehistoric record

Coral rubble/shingle ridges

Chenier and beach ridges

Sand splays

Washover deposits

Long-term cyclone frequencies

The intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones

Risk assessment of tropical cyclones using historical versus

prehistorical records

Future developments in palaeotempestology

Conclusion

5 Tsunamis

Tsunami characteristics and formation

Meteotsunami

Modern tsunami impacts on coasts

Erosional features

Palaeotsunami

Sand sheets

Boulder deposits

Studies of coastal boulder movements

Determining the type of wave responsible for boulder movements： a

theoretical approach

Other forms of evidence for palaeotsunami

Conclusion

6 Earthquakes

7 Landslides

8 Volcanoes

9 Asteroids

10 Extreme events over time

References

Index

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书籍介绍

The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones, may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible. As human populations grow, especially in hazard-prone areas, methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important. Jonathan Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards from natural long-term records. He demonstrates how long-term records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the variability of natural hazards, and how short-term historical records can often misrepresent likely risks.