The Age Of Aging:How Demogrphics Are Changing The Global Economy And Our World老龄化：人口统计特征是如何改变全球经济和我们的世界的？ mobi 下载 fb2 夸克云 azw3 网盘 pdf pmlz

The year 2008 marks the beginning of the baby boomer retirement avalanche just as the different demographics in advanced and most developing countries are becoming more pronounced. People are worrying again that developments in global population trends, food supply, natural resource availability and climate change raise the question as to whether Malthus was right after all.

The Age of Aging explores a unique phenomenon for mankind and, therefore, one that takes us into uncharted territory. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to rapid aging and a stagnation or fall in the number of people of working age in Western societies. Japan is in pole position but will be joined soon by other Western countries, and some emerging markets including China. The book examines the economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures, and the type of environment in which the baby-boomers' children will grow up.

The contrast between the expected old age bulge in Western nations and the youth bulge in developing countries has important implications for globalization, and for immigration in Western countries - two topics already characterized by rising discontent or opposition. But we have to find ways of making both globalization and immigration work for all, for fear that failure may lead us down much darker paths. Aging also brings new challenges for the world to address in two sensitive areas, the politicization of religion and the management of international security. Governments and global institutions will have to take greater responsibilities to ensure that public policy responses are appropriate and measured.

The challenges arising within aging societies, and the demographic contrasts between Western and developing countries make for a fractious world - one that is line with the much-debated 'decline of the West'. The book doesn't flinch from recognizing the ways in which this could become more visible, but also asserts that we can address demographic change effectively if governments and strengthened international institutions are permitted a larger role in managing change.

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Preface

Chapter 1: Introducing a new age

Everyone is affected everywhere

The demographic debate laid bare

Differing prospects for richer and poorer nations

Demographics and other global trends

Endnotes

Chapter 2: Population issues from Jesus Christ to aging and climate change

Population take-off, Malthus, and Marx

Fertility debate gathers significance

Falling fertility, family structures, and modern times

Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray

Food and oil supplies

Water shortages too?

What happened to the dominant species?

Endnotes

Chapter 3:The age of aging

Global population changes

Your world party guestlist

Three stages of ages

Aging and dependency

What about the workers?

Dependency ratios for the old and the young are not comparable

The demographic dividend for poorer countries

Conclusions

Endnotes

Chapter 4: The economics of aging—what is tobe done?

How the rich world isaging

Will labor shortage scrimp growth?

Is it possible to boost the supply of workers?

Raising participation and immigration

Women to work

Can we strengthen brain as well as brawn?

Working longer to retirement

Youth trends sap economic strength

How much immigration?

Productivity is the holy economic grail

Will we be able to finance retirement?

Saving less with age, saving less anyway

Changing pension schemes

Retirement and savings in the United States

Endnotes

Chapter 5: Coming of age: United States, Japan,and Europe

Aging in advanced economies

Accounting for growth in Japan, western Europe, and America

Removing the sex and age barriers to work Barriers to female employment

Barriers to older workers in employment

Later retirement is more than just a matter of law

A Singaporean model for all?

Who’s for change?

Endnotes

Chapter 6: Will aging damage your wealth?

Will there been enough in the personal savings pot?

Savings patterns and trends in Japan

Savings in the United States

Savings in Europe

Less generous pensions

More self-reliance for retirement savings

Government spending and more public debt

Age-related spending: pensions

Age-related spending: healthcare

Age-related spending in OECD countries

America’s healthcare and public spending explosion

Paying for aging

Fiscal versus fallen angels

Will aging societies inflate or deflate?

Will aging damage your wealth?

Less buoyant returns but new opportunities

Safe as houses?

Prime-age house buyers in decline:who will buy?

Wealthy and healthy?

Endnotes

Chapter 7: Waiting in the wings: aging in emerging and developing nations

Aging faster than rich countries

Demographic dividend and dependency

Asian strengths and weaknesses

Gender discrimination

China—Middle Kingdom, middle age

One-child policy

Running out of cheap labor

Economic consequences

Growing social policy agenda

India and its human capital

An Asian America?

Jobs and skills are what India needs

Russia—a failing petrostate?

Demographic decay

Fading fertility

Mounting mortality

Manpower, military, and immigration

Africa and the Middle East, banking on the dividend

Africa: a distorted dividend?

Reasons to be optimistic regardless?

Stronger institutions, too much HIV/AIDS

Middle East and NorthAfrica—rage, religion, and reform

Basic population characteristics

Angry young men in an unstable region

The need for reform

Believing, not belonging

Don’t hold your breath

Endnotes

Chapter 8: Where globalization and demographics meet

Globalization is the death of distance

Solving the globalization problem via institutions

The globalization “trilemma”

Negative sentiment

Globalization and well-being: the case of HIV/AIDS

For richer, for poorer: marriage by globalization

Conclusions

Endnotes

Chapter 9: Will immigration solve aging society problems?

Rising hostility toward immigration

How many immigrants and where are they?How sustainable is higher immigrant fertility?

Economic arguments are awkward or weak

Short-run effects positive but may not last

Unskilled or semiskilled immigration issues

For some, a brain drain into retirement

Financial aspects of immigration are balanced

Competition for migrants may be rising

Conclusions

Endnotes

Chapter 10: Demographic issues in religion and international security

The secular-religious pendulum swings back

The Pyrrhic victory of secular capitalism

Will religion get us from here to maternity?

Religious belief in the ascendant?7

Secular balance can be sustained

International security

Demographic change and new forms of conflict

Manpower shortages

Endnotes

Epilogue: The Boomerangst generation

The kiss of debt and other sources of angst

Insecurity, inequality, and changing family structures

Conclusion

Endnotes

Postscript: Population forecasting

Index

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作者简介：George Magnus is the senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank and has held this position since 2005. Before this, he was the bank’s chief economist with effect from the merger between UBS and Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998, leading a team of professional economists to the highest accolades in the Institutional Investor and other industry analyst surveys. His previous responsibilities involved senior macroeconomic and managerial positions in Union Bank of Switzerland, SG Warburg and Bank of America. Mr. Magnus’ research is widely known and respected in the financial services community and the business media in the United States, Asia and Europe. He was one of very few to articulate at the beginning of 2007 that a major credit crunch in the United States and the West was likely, with damaging and long-lasting economic consequences around the world. He lives and works in London, is married, and has four children.

书籍介绍

The year 2008 marks the beginning of the baby boomer retirement avalanche just as the different demographics in advanced and most developing countries are becoming more pronounced. People are worrying again that developments in global population trends, food supply, natural resource availability and climate change raise the question as to whether Malthus was right after all.

The Age of Aging explores a unique phenomenon for mankind and, therefore, one that takes us into uncharted territory. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to rapid aging and a stagnation or fall in the number of people of working age in Western societies. Japan is in pole position but will be joined soon by other Western countries, and some emerging markets including China. The book examines the economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures, and the type of environment in which the baby–boomers′ children will grow up.

The contrast between the expected old age bulge in Western nations and the youth bulge in developing countries has important implications for globalization, and for immigration in Western countries – two topics already characterized by rising discontent or opposition. But we have to find ways of making both globalization and immigration work for all, for fear that failure may lead us down much darker paths. Aging also brings new challenges for the world to address in two sensitive areas, the politicization of religion and the management of international security. Governments and global institutions will have to take greater responsibilities to ensure that public policy responses are appropriate and measured.

The challenges arising within aging societies, and the demographic contrasts between Western and developing countries make for a fractious world – one that is line with the much–debated ′decline of the West′. The book doesn′t flinch from recognizing the ways in which this could become more visible, but also asserts that we can address demographic change effectively if governments and strengthened international institutions are permitted a larger role in managing change.